Yesterday, PJM posted a mid-year load forecast update which is, "intended to give RPM market participants more information between Base Residual Auctions, increasing transparency and reducing uncertainty by allowing trends and changes in RPM parameters to become visible earlier."

The update, however, "is solely for informational purposes and will not be used for any planning studies or market operations."

The report is a table showing coincident peaks for each PJM zone and LDA for the delivery years 2015/16 through 2018/19. In addition to the updated forecast, the 2014, 2013, and 2012 forecasts are also provided for comparison.

Access the load forecast update here

We cannot help but notice how the load forecast consistently is lowered in each subsequent update since an initial forecast from January 2012.

Every update to the RTO-wide load forecast is lower as the delivery year draws nearer, while almost every single zonal level forecast is also lower with each update (apart from a handful of exceptions)

This only reinforces two absurdities of the PJM capacity market process:

1. Calling a centrally planned procurement of administratively determined quantities a "market", and

2. Believing regulators and grid operators can know with any meaningful accuracy what peak load will be in the future, and using such predictions as justifications for their actions

It also goes without saying that the more load that is forecast, the higher the capacity costs (both from a total quantity perspective and also from a higher clearing price perspective) will be, and the conational downward revisions to the load forecasts as the delivery year draws near reinforces the chronic inflation of load in the PJM capacity auction which occurs three years ahead of delivery