Despite Continuing Records, ERCOT Peak Demand Still Well-Off Forecasts From 2011-12
August 11,2015
ERCOT set another peak demand record yesterday, with demand eclipsing 69,000 MW for the first time (at 69,783 MW), but while there has been some murmurs among capacity owners that demand is finally showing up, we feel it is instructive to see how far off today's records are from the dire predictions from the crazed days of the capacity market debate.
Specifically, ERCOT's latest peak is still under 70,000 MW, which does not reflect any depressed demand from the dispatch of emergency load resources by ERCOT.
In contrast, the December 2011 and May 2012 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves reports, in the wake of the brutal 2011 summer, forecast total peak demand for the summer of 2015 as 73,552 MW. When adjusting this forecast for mandated energy efficiency goals, the forecast peak for 2015 was 73,054 MW.
While the CDRs also report a "firm" load forecast reflecting the dispatch of emergency load resources, such a comparison would be inappropriate to the recent record peaks since the recent peaks did not reflect the removal of demand associated with emergency load deployments.